Effect of wildfire on the prevalence of opioid misuse through anxiety among young adults in the United States: A modeling study.

Background: Exposure to climate change events like wildfires can lead to health and mental health problems. While conceptual frameworks have been hypothesized describing the potential relationship between disaster exposure and substance use, the association remains under-researched and unquantified. Methods: We constructed a quantitative portrayal of one proposed conceptual framework that focuses on the intermediary role of anxiety. We used the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the impact of wildfire exposure on opioid misuse outcomes through increased anxiety. We searched for and extracted prior empirical evidence on the associations between wildfire anxiety and anxiety-opioid misuse. A base case scenario (S1) was devised in which the impact of wildfire on opioid misuse was limited to increasing anxiety incidence. Two exploratory scenarios investigated the additive roles of altered anxiety phenotype (S2) and increased severity of pre-existing anxiety (S3) due to wildfire exposure. Results: Models show that the prevalence of opioid misuse post-wildfire may rise to 6.0%-7.2%. In S1 (base case), the opioid misuse prevalence ratio was 1.12 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.00 - 1.27). The two exploratory scenarios, with less stringent assumptions, yielded prevalence ratios of 1.23 (95% UI: 1.00 - 1.51) and 1.34 (95% UI: 1.11 - 1.63). Conclusions: Our modeling study suggests that exposure to wildfires may elevate opioid misuse through increasing anxiety incidence and severity. This may lead to substantial health burdens that may persist long after the initial wildfire event, which may offset recent gains in opioid misuse prevention.

Cost-effectiveness of a police education program on HIV and overdose among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico.

Background: Incarceration is associated with drug-related harms among people who inject drugs (PWID). We trained >1800 police officers in Tijuana, Mexico on occupational safety and HIV/HCV, harm reduction, and decriminalization reforms (Proyecto Escudo). We evaluated its effect on incarceration, population impact and cost-effectiveness on HIV and fatal overdose among PWID. Methods: We assessed self-reported recent incarceration in a longitudinal cohort of PWID before and after Escudo. Segmented regression was used to compare linear trends in log risk of incarceration among PWID pre-Escudo (2012-2015) and post-Escudo (2016-2018). We estimated population impact using a dynamic model of HIV transmission and fatal overdose among PWID, with incarceration associated with syringe sharing and fatal overdose. The model was calibrated to HIV and incarceration patterns in Tijuana. We compared a scenario with Escudo (observed incarceration declines for 2 years post-Escudo among PWID from the segmented regression) compared to a counterfactual of no Escudo (continuation of stable pre-Escudo trends), assessing cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective. Using a 2-year intervention effect and 50-year time horizon, we determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, in 2022 USD per disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] averted). Findings: Compared to stable incarceration pre-Escudo, for every three-month interval in the post-Escudo period, recent incarceration among PWID declined by 21% (adjusted relative risk = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68-0.91). Based on these declines, we estimated 1.7% [95% interval: 0.7%-3.5%] of new HIV cases and 12.2% [4.5%-26.6%] of fatal overdoses among PWID were averted in the 2 years post-Escudo, compared to a counterfactual without Escudo. Escudo was cost-effective (ICER USD 3746/DALY averted compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of $4842-$13,557). Interpretation: Escudo is a cost-effective structural intervention that aligned policing practices and human-rights-based public health practices, which could serve as a model for other settings where policing constitutes structural HIV and overdose risk among PWID. Funding: National Institute on Drug Abuse, UC MEXUS CONACyT, and the San Diego Center for AIDS Research (SD CFAR).

Group psychedelic therapy: empirical estimates of cost-savings and improved access.

Objective: To compare group and individual psychedelic-assisted therapy in terms of clinician time, costs and patient access. Methods: Using 2023 data from two group therapy trial sites, one using 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) to treat posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and one using psilocybin to treat major depressive disorder (MDD), we compared overall variable costs, clinician costs and clinician time required by therapy protocols utilizing groups versus individual patient therapy. Using published literature, we estimated the prevalence of adults with PTSD and MDD eligible for treatment with psychedelic therapy and projected the savings in time and cost required to treat these prevalent cases. Results: Group therapy saved 50.9% of clinician costs for MDMA-PTSD and 34.7% for psilocybin-MDD, or $3,467 and $981 per patient, respectively. To treat all eligible PTSD and MDD patients in the U.S. in 10 years with group therapy, 6,711 fewer full-time equivalent (FTE) clinicians for MDMA-PTSD and 1,159 fewer for FTE clinicians for psilocybin-MDD would be needed, saving up to $10.3 billion and $2.0 billion respectively, discounted at 3% annually. Conclusion: Adopting group therapy protocols where feasible would significantly reduce the cost of psychedelic-assisted therapies. By enhancing the number of patients served per clinician, group therapy could also ameliorate the anticipated shortage of appropriately trained clinicians, thereby accelerating access to these promising new therapies.

Primary health care providers knowledge of dementia and cognitive assessment tools for elderly populations in Southeast Nigeria: A pilot survey.

Objectives: Primary health care remains the widely available first point of medical care in Nigeria and in other low- and middle-income countries. Recognizing the rising prevalence of dementia in these settings, primary healthcare providers should be trained on cognitive assessment. However, little is known about the current Nigerian primary healthcare providers' knowledge of dementia, cognitive assessment tools, and use in elderly populations. The aim of this study was to evaluate primary healthcare providers' knowledge of dementia and cognitive assessment tools in Southeast Nigeria in preparation for the introduction of digital tablet-based assessment tool. Methods: This is a cross-sectional mixed method descriptive pilot survey carried out in a comprehensive healthcare center affiliated with Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital. Fifty healthcare workers participated. Convenience sampling was employed involving all consenting primary healthcare providers in comprehensive healthcare center-Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital. A structured questionnaire was distributed for generation of both qualitative and quantitative data. Result: The mean age of the 50 primary healthcare providers was 36.6 years, with females constituting 80%. Mean practice duration was 10.8 years. Their response on the mean age at which patients may need a cognitive assessment was reported as 52.8 years. Primary healthcare providers reported that dementia is associated with memory loss and can be genetically inherited. None of the respondents were familiar with Montreal cognitive assessment, or any form of tablet-based cognitive assessment tool. Most (86%) knew about the mini mental state examination. Conclusion: Primary healthcare providers are deficient in knowledge of dementia Alzheimer's or cognitive assessment tools, and so they do not routinely carryout cognitive screening in elderly patients during clinic visits. It is important to train all cadres of primary healthcare staff on the use and benefit of cognitive assessment using culturally validated user-friendly tool to improve quality of care for the elderly population.

Care Ecosystem Collaborative Model and Health Care Costs in Medicare Beneficiaries With Dementia: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Collaborative dementia care programs are effective in addressing the needs of patients with dementia and their caregivers. However, attempts to consider effects on health care spending have been limited, leaving a critical gap in the conversation around value-based dementia care. Objective: To determine the effect of participation in collaborative dementia care on total Medicare reimbursement costs compared with usual care. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a prespecified secondary analysis of the Care Ecosystem trial, a 12-month, single-blind, parallel-group randomized clinical trial conducted from March 2015 to March 2018 at 2 academic medical centers in California and Nebraska. Participants were patients with dementia who were living in the community, aged 45 years or older, and had a primary caregiver and Medicare fee-for-service coverage for the duration of the trial. Intervention: Telehealth dementia care program that entailed assignment to an unlicensed dementia care guide who provided caregiver support, standardized education, and connection to licensed dementia care specialists. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was the sum of all Medicare claim payments during study enrollment, excluding Part D (drugs). Results: Of the 780 patients in the Care Ecosystem trial, 460 (59.0%) were eligible for and included in this analysis. Patients had a median (IQR) age of 78 (72-84) years, and 256 (55.7%) identified as female. Participation in collaborative dementia care reduced the total cost of care by $3290 from 1 to 6 months postenrollment (95% CI, -$6149 to -$431; P = .02) and by $3027 from 7 to 12 months postenrollment (95% CI, -$5899 to -$154; P = .04), corresponding overall to a mean monthly cost reduction of $526 across 12 months. An evaluation of baseline predictors of greater cost reduction identified trends for recent emergency department visit (-$5944; 95% CI, -$10 336 to -$1553; interaction P = .07) and caregiver depression (-$6556; 95% CI, -$11 059 to -$2052; interaction P = .05). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial among Medicare beneficiaries with dementia, the Care Ecosystem model was associated with lower total cost of care compared with usual care. Collaborative dementia care programs are a cost-effective, high-value model for dementia care. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02213458.

Cost analysis of an intrapartum quality improvement package for improving preterm survival and reinforcing best practices in Kenya and Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Preterm birth is a leading cause of under-5 mortality, with the greatest burden in lower-resource settings. Strategies to improve preterm survival have been tested, but strategy costs are less understood. We estimate costs of a highly effective Preterm Birth Initiative (PTBi) intrapartum intervention package (data strengthening, WHO Safe Childbirth Checklist, simulation and team training, quality improvement collaboratives) and active control (data strengthening, Safe Childbirth Checklist). METHODS: In our analysis, we estimated costs incremental to current cost of intrapartum care (in 2020 $US) for the PTBi intervention package and active control in Kenya and Uganda. We costed the intervention package and control in two scenarios: 1) non-research implementation costs as observed in the PTBi study (Scenario 1, mix of public and private inputs), and 2) hypothetical costs for a model of implementation into Ministry of Health programming (Scenario 2, mostly public inputs). Using a healthcare system perspective, we employed micro-costing of personnel, supplies, physical space, and travel, including 3 sequential phases: program planning/adaptation (9 months); high-intensity implementation (15 months); lower-intensity maintenance (annual). One-way sensitivity analyses explored the effects of uncertainty in Scenario 2. RESULTS: Scenario 1 PTBi package total costs were $1.11M in Kenya ($48.13/birth) and $0.74M in Uganda ($17.19/birtth). Scenario 2 total costs were $0.86M in Kenya ($23.91/birth) and $0.28M in Uganda ($5.47/birth); annual maintenance phase costs per birth were $16.36 in Kenya and $3.47 in Uganda. In each scenario and country, personnel made up at least 72% of total PTBi package costs. Total Scenario 2 costs in Uganda were consistently one-third those of Kenya, largely driven by differences in facility delivery volume and personnel salaries. CONCLUSIONS: If taken up and implemented, the PTBi package has the potential to save preterm lives, with potential steady-state (maintenance) costs that would be roughly 5-15% of total per-birth healthcare costs in Uganda and Kenya.

COVID-19 testing protocols to guide duration of isolation: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 led to a steep rise in transmissions, and emerging variants continue to influence case rates across the US. As public tolerance for isolation abated, CDC guidance on duration of at-home isolation of COVID-19 cases was shortened to five days if no symptoms, with no laboratory test requirement, despite more cautious approaches advocated by other federal experts. METHODS: We conducted a decision tree analysis of alternative protocols for ending COVID-19 isolation, estimating net costs (direct and productivity), secondary infections, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of input uncertainty. RESULTS: Per 100 individuals, five-day isolation had 23 predicted secondary infections and a net cost of $33,000. Symptom check on day five (CDC guidance) yielded a 23% decrease in secondary infections (to 17.8), with a net cost of $45,000. Antigen testing on day six yielded 2.9 secondary infections and $63,000 in net costs. This protocol, compared to the next best protocol of antigen testing on day five of a maximum eight-day isolation, cost an additional $1,300 per secondary infection averted. Antigen or polymerase chain reaction testing on day five were dominated (more expensive and less effective) versus antigen testing on day six. Results were qualitatively robust to uncertainty in key inputs. CONCLUSIONS: A six-day isolation with antigen testing to confirm the absence of contagious virus appears the most effective and cost-effective de-isolation protocol to shorten at-home isolation of individuals with COVID-19.

Optimizing Physician Payment for a Single-Payer Healthcare System.

Current forms of payment of independent physicians in U.S. health care may incentivize more care (fee-for-service) or less care (capitation), be inequitable across specialties (resource-based relative value scale [RBRVS]), and distract from clinical care (value-based payments [VBP]). Alternative systems should be considered as part of health care financing reform. We propose a "Fee-for-Time" approach that would pay independent physicians using an hourly rate based on years of necessary training applied to time for service delivery and documentation. RBRVS overvalues procedures and undervalues cognitive services. VBP shifts insurance risk onto physicians, introducing incentives to game performance metrics and to avoid potentially expensive patients. The administrative requirements of current payment methods introduce large administrative costs and undermine physician motivation and morale. We describe a Fee-for-Time payment scenario. A combination of single-payer financing and payment of independent physicians using the Fee-for-Time proposal would be simpler, more objective, incentive-neutral, fairer, less easily gamed, and less expensive to administer than any system with physician payment based on fee-for-service using RBRVS and VBP.

Preventing HIV and achieving pregnancy among HIV sero-different couples: Pilot study of a safer conception intervention in Zimbabwe.

Safer conception services are needed to minimize HIV transmission among HIV sero-different couples desiring pregnancy. Few studies have evaluated the choices couples make when offered multiple safer conception methods or real-world method acceptability and effectiveness. We piloted a comprehensive safer conception program (Clintrials.gov identifier: NCT03049176) for HIV sero-different couples planning pregnancy in Zimbabwe to measure feasibility, method uptake, acceptability, pregnancy outcome, and HIV transmission. This study was not designed to compare rates of HIV transmission by safer conception method choice but rather to understand choices couples make when seeking to minimize risk of HIV transmission and maximize likelihood of pregnancy. Couples in this prospective, non-randomized study were given a choice of one or more currently available safer conception methods: antiretroviral therapy (ART) with monthly viral load (VL) monitoring for the HIV-positive partner (ART/VL), pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for the HIV-negative partner, vaginal insemination (VI) for couples with an HIV-positive woman, and semen washing (SW) for couples with an HIV-positive man. Couples were followed monthly for up to 12 months of pregnancy attempts, quarterly during pregnancy, and 12 weeks post-partum. At each visit, data on method use, urine for pregnancy testing, and blood for HIV antibody testing, or viral load if HIV-positive, were obtained. Infants born to HIV-positive women were tested for HIV at 6 and 12 weeks. Between March 2017 and June 2019, 46 individuals from 23 HIV sero-different partnerships were enrolled and followed. At enrollment, all couples chose ART/VL, and all couples chose at least one additional method; 74% chose PrEP, 36% chose SW, and 25% chose VI. During pre-pregnancy follow-up visits, three couples discontinued SW, and one couple discontinued VI; all four of these couples opted for ART/VL plus PrEP. Satisfaction with safer conception methods was high among those who chose ART/VL and PrEP. Twelve couples achieved pregnancy. There were no cases of HIV transmission to partners, and no infants tested positive for HIV. This safer conception program is feasible and acceptable, allowing sero-different couples to safely achieve pregnancy. Sero-different couples in Zimbabwe seek a combination of HIV prevention methods, particularly ART/VL plus PrEP. Trial Registration: Clintrials.gov, NCT03049176.

Hospital Expenditures Under Global Budgeting and Single-Payer Financing: An Economic Analysis, 2021-2030.

U.S. hospitals provide large amounts of low-value care and devote inordinate resources to administration, while some hospitals leverage market power to realize large profits. Meanwhile, many rural and safety net hospitals are financially distressed. The coexistence of waste and want suggests that U.S. hospital financing is neither efficient nor equitable. We model the economic consequences of adopting the mode of hospital payment used in Canada and the U.S. Veterans Health Administration and proposed in the leading congressional single-payer Medicare-for-All bill: global budgeting. Our models assume increased utilization due to expanded and upgraded coverage; gradual reductions in administrative costs from simplified payment; and the elimination of hospital profits, with hospital capital expenditures funded by explicit grants rather than from profits or borrowing. We estimate that non-federal hospital operating budgets will total $17.2 trillion between 2021 and 2030 under current law versus $14.7 trillion under single-payer with global budgeting. This difference reflects $520 billion in foregone profits and $1,984 billion in reduced expenditures on hospital administration; expenditures on clinical operating budgets, however, would be higher than under current law, funded out of profits.

Sexual Practice Changes Post-HIV Diagnosis Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Men who have sex with men (MSM) often change sexual behaviors following HIV diagnosis. This systematic review examined such changes, including sero-adaptive behaviors (i.e., deliberate safer-sex practices to reduce transmission risk) to better understand the magnitude of their association with HIV diagnosis. We searched four databases (1996-2017) and reviewed references from other systematic reviews. We included studies conducted in the United States that compared sexual behavior among HIV-infected "aware" versus "unaware" MSM. We meta-analytically pooled RRs and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) using random-effects models, and assessed risk of bias and evidence quality. Twenty studies reported k = 131 effect sizes on sexual practices outcomes, most of which reported changes in unprotected sex (k = 85), and on sex with at-risk partners (k = 76); 11 reported sero-adaptive behaviors. Unprotected anal intercourse with an HIV-uninfected/unknown-status partner was less likely among aware MSM (insertive position: k = 2, RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.17, 0.41; receptive position: k = 2, RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.37, 0.77). Risk of not always serosorting among aware MSM (k = 3) was RR = 0.92 (0.83, 1.02). Existing evidence, although low-quality, suggests that HIV-infected MSM tend to adopt safer sexual practices once aware of their diagnosis. Variation in reporting of outcomes limits their comparability. Sero-adaptive behavior data are sparse.

The economics of psychedelic-assisted therapies: A research agenda.

After a long hiatus, psychiatry is undergoing a resurgence of interest in psychedelic drugs as therapy for a wide range of mental health disorders Accumulating clinical evidence suggests substantial potential for psychedelics used in a therapeutic context, as treatment for, among other disorders, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and addictions to tobacco, opioids and alcohol. As soon as 2024, powerful new therapeutic modalities could become available for individuals with mental health problems refractory to traditional therapies. Yet research has lagged on economic considerations, such as costs and cost-effectiveness, the economic effects of widespread implementation, pricing, and economic appraisal's methodological considerations relevant to psychedelic therapies. These issues are critical if psychedelic therapies are to become widely accessible. We describe six types of economic analyses and their rationale for decisions and planning including the needs of health care payers. We also outline desirable features of this research, including scientific rigor, long horizons, equity, and a global view.

COVID-19 Testing Strategies for K-12 Schools in California: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Public health officials must provide guidance on operating schools safely during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from April-December 2021, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to assess six screening strategies for schools using SARS-CoV-2 antigen and PCR tests and varying screening frequencies for 1000 individuals. We estimated secondary infections averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), cost per QALY gained, and unnecessary school days missed per infection averted. We conducted sensitivity analyses for the more transmissible Omicron variant. Weekly antigen testing with PCR follow-up for positives was the most cost-effective option given moderate transmission, adding 0.035 QALYs at a cost of USD 320,000 per QALY gained in the base case (Reff = 1.1, prevalence = 0.2%). This strategy had the fewest needlessly missed school days (ten) per secondary infection averted. During widespread community transmission with Omicron (Reff = 1.5, prevalence = 5.8%), twice weekly antigen testing with PCR follow-up led to 2.02 QALYs gained compared to no test and cost the least (USD 187,300), with 0.5 needlessly missed schooldays per infection averted. In periods of moderate community transmission, weekly antigen testing with PCR follow up can help reduce transmission in schools with minimal unnecessary days of school missed. During widespread community transmission, twice weekly antigen screening with PCR confirmation is the most cost-effective and efficient strategy. Schools may benefit from resources to implement routine asymptomatic testing during surges; benefits decline as community transmission declines.

Viral blood-borne infections testing and linkage to care cascade among persons who experience homelessness in the United States: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Persons who experience homelessness remain at increased risk for three viral blood-borne infections: human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV). We assessed the yield of testing and linkage to care programs targeting this population for these infections in the United States (US). METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central for peer-reviewed articles through August 27, 2020. Additionally, we searched the grey literature. Two individuals independently reviewed all relevant studies to check for eligibility and extracted data for each step in the care cascade. We used random-effects model to generate weighted pooled proportions to assess yield at each step. Cumulative proportions were calculated as products of adjacent-step pooled proportions. We quantitatively synthesized data from the studies that focused on non-drug injecting individuals. RESULTS: We identified 24 studies published between 1996-2019 conducted in 19 US states. Seventeen studies screened for HIV, 12 for HCV, and two screened for HBV. For HIV, 72% of approached were recruited, 64% had valid results, 4% tested positive, 2% were given results, and 1% were referred and attended follow-up. Of positives, 25% were referred to treatment and started care. For HCV, 69% of approached were recruited, 63% had valid results, 16% tested positive, 14% were given results, and 3% attended follow-up. Of positives, 30% were referred for treatment and 19% started care. The yield at each care cascade step differs widely by recruitment strategy (for example, for HIV: 71.6% recruited of reached under service-based with zero yield under healthcare facility-based and outreach). CONCLUSIONS: A very large proportion of this population reached for HIV and HCV care were lost in the follow-up steps and never received treatment. Future programs should examine drop-out reasons and intervene to reduce health disparities in this population.

Indirect COVID-19 health effects and potential mitigating interventions: Cost-effectiveness framework.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic led to important indirect health and social harms in addition to deaths and morbidity due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. These indirect impacts, such as increased depression and substance abuse, can have persistent effects over the life course. Estimated health and cost outcomes of such conditions and mitigation strategies may guide public health responses. METHODS: We developed a cost-effectiveness framework to evaluate societal costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to six health-related indirect effects of COVID-19 in California. Short- and long-term outcomes were evaluated for the adult population. We identified one evidence-based mitigation strategy for each condition and estimated QALYs gained, intervention costs, and savings from averted health-related harms. Model data were derived from literature review, public data, and expert opinion. RESULTS: Pandemic-associated increases in prevalence across these six conditions were estimated to lead to over 192,000 QALYs lost and to approach $7 billion in societal costs per million population over the life course of adults. The greatest costs and QALYs lost per million adults were due to adult depression. All mitigation strategies assessed saved both QALYs and costs, with five strategies achieving savings within one year. The greatest net savings over 10 years would be achieved by addressing depression ($242 million) and excessive alcohol use ($107 million). DISCUSSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is leading to significant human suffering and societal costs due to its indirect effects. Policymakers have an opportunity to reduce societal costs and health harms by implementing mitigation strategies.

Correction: Updated cost-effectiveness of MDMA-assisted therapy for the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder in the United States: Findings from a phase 3 trial.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263252.].

Universal healthcare as pandemic preparedness: The lives and costs that could have been saved during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The fragmented and inefficient healthcare system in the United States leads to many preventable deaths and unnecessary costs every year. During a pandemic, the lives saved and economic benefits of a single-payer universal healthcare system relative to the status quo would be even greater. For Americans who are uninsured and underinsured, financial barriers to COVID-19 care delayed diagnosis and exacerbated transmission. Concurrently, deaths beyond COVID-19 accrued from the background rate of uninsurance. Universal healthcare would alleviate the mortality caused by the confluence of these factors. To evaluate the repercussions of incomplete insurance coverage in 2020, we calculated the elevated mortality attributable to the loss of employer-sponsored insurance and to background rates of uninsurance, summing with the increased COVID-19 mortality due to low insurance coverage. Incorporating the demography of the uninsured with age-specific COVID-19 and nonpandemic mortality, we estimated that a single-payer universal healthcare system would have saved about 212,000 lives in 2020 alone. We also calculated that US$105.6 billion of medical expenses associated with COVID-19 hospitalization could have been averted by a single-payer universal healthcare system over the course of the pandemic. These economic benefits are in addition to US$438 billion expected to be saved by single-payer universal healthcare during a nonpandemic year.

Modeling of overdose and naloxone distribution in the setting of fentanyl compared to heroin.

BACKGROUND: Fentanyl has replaced most other non-prescribed opioids in much of North America. There is controversy over whether a hypothetical reduced efficacy of naloxone in reversing fentanyl is a major contributor to the coincident rising overdose mortality. METHODS: We modified an existing Markov decision analytic model of heroin overdose and naloxone distribution to account for known risks of fentanyl by adjusting overdose risk, the likelihood of death in the event of overdose, and the proportion of cases in which available naloxone was administered in time to prevent death. We assumed near-universal survival when naloxone was administered promptly for heroin or fentanyl overdose, but allowed that to decline in sensitivity analyses for fentanyl. We varied the proportion of use that was fentanyl and adjusted the modified parameters accordingly to estimate mortality as the dominant opioid shifted. RESULTS: Absent naloxone, the annual overdose death rate was 1.0% and 4.1% for heroin and fentanyl, respectively. With naloxone reaching 80% of those at risk, the overdose death rate was 0.7% and 3.6% for heroin and fentanyl, respectively, representing reductions of 26.4% and 12.0%. Monte Carlo simulations resulted in overdose mortality with fentanyl of 3.3-5.2% without naloxone and 2.6-4.9% with naloxone, with 95% certainty. Positing reduced efficacy for naloxone in reversing fentanyl resulted in 3.6% of fentanyl overdose deaths being prevented by naloxone. CONCLUSIONS: Heightened risk for overdose and subsequent death, alongside the time-sensitive need for naloxone administration, fully account for increased mortality when fentanyl replaces heroin, assuming optimal pharmacologic efficacy of naloxone.

Interventions to reengage people living with HIV who are lost to follow-up from HIV treatment programs: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Optimizing services to facilitate engagement and retention in care of people living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) is critical to decrease HIV-related morbidity and mortality and HIV transmission. We systematically reviewed the literature for the effectiveness of implementation strategies to reestablish and subsequently retain clinical contact, improve viral load suppression, and reduce mortality among patients who had been lost to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV services. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched 7 databases (PubMed, Cochrane, ERIC, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the WHO regional databases) and 3 conference abstract archives (CROI, IAC, and IAS) to find randomized trials and observational studies published through 13 April 2020. Eligible studies included those involving children and adults who were diagnosed with HIV, had initiated ART, and were subsequently lost to care and that reported at least one review outcome (return to care, retention, viral suppression, or mortality). Data were extracted by 2 reviewers, with discrepancies resolved by a third. We characterized reengagement strategies according to how, where, and by whom tracing was conducted. We explored effects, first, among all categorized as LTFU from the HIV program (reengagement program effect) and second among those found to be alive and out of care (reengagement contact outcome). We used random-effect models for meta-analysis and conducted subgroup analyses to explore heterogeneity. Searches yielded 4,244 titles, resulting in 37 included studies (6 randomized trials and 31 observational studies). In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (N = 16), tracing most frequently involved identification of LTFU from the electronic medical record (EMR) and paper records followed by a combination of telephone calls and field tracing (including home visits), by a team of outreach workers within 3 months of becoming LTFU (N = 7), with few incorporating additional strategies to support reengagement beyond contact (N = 2). In high-income countries (HICs) (N = 21 studies), LTFU were similarly identified through EMR systems, at times matched with other public health records (N = 4), followed by telephone calls and letters sent by mail or email and conducted by outreach specialist teams. Home visits were less common (N = 7) than in LMICs, and additional reengagement support was similarly infrequent (N = 5). Overall, reengagement programs were able to return 39% (95% CI: 31% to 47%) of all patients who were characterized as LTFU (n = 29). Reengagement contact resulted in 58% (95% CI: 51% to 65%) return among those found to be alive and out of care (N = 17). In 9 studies that had a control condition, the return was higher among those in the reengagement intervention group than the standard of care group (RR: 1.20 (95% CI: 1.08 to 1.32, P < 0.001). There were insufficient data to generate pooled estimates of retention, viral suppression, or mortality after the return. CONCLUSIONS: While the types of interventions are markedly heterogeneity, reengagement interventions increase return to care. HIV programs should consider investing in systems to better characterize LTFU to identify those who are alive and out of care, and further research on the optimum time to initiate reengagement efforts after missed visits and how to best support sustained reengagement could improve efficiency and effectiveness.